Short and medium term it does nothing to happen

Next Monday, as now, it will be the same factors in blue and yellow jacket that will distribute mail throughout the territory. However, by then a small symbolic revolution is will be operated with the full liberalisation of the market. The segment of the letters of less than 50 grams - the last still under the monopoly of the post - will be officially opened January 1 competition. This is theoretically of sharpen the appetite of a private group: the volumes of mail under 50 grams represent approximately 83 of the total of items of correspondence (those less than 2 kilos), and the rate is 75 in value, according to the latest figures of the Arcep (regulation of electronic communications authority and positions).

Many difficulties

And yet... "Short and medium term, it does nothing to happen." "No significant national player is expected", said Frédéric Pons, President of Adrexo. The company also warned that it did not come on the market, while it had already thrown the sponge on the mail more than 50 grams, two years ago. Even ring in Denis Cayet, CEO of IMX, an operator specialized in the segment - already open to competition - mail internationally, and who believes that "there is no project in the drawers, and it wasn't until 2012 or 2013 to see initiatives emerge."

Why such caution The opening of the other segments of the market showed that it was anything but easy to attack the position. Two operators have embarked in the past in the mail from more than 50 grams in the national plan. The first - Adrexo s ' thus retired after two unsuccessful years to reposition on the packages and advertising mail. On the second, Alternative Post, he was placed in judicial liquidation a year ago. Evidence of the difficulty "to put in place a sharp logistics and to identify the needs of the customers", according to a specialist in the sector.

Remain so only a dozen of local actors that serve only a small catchment area (Althus at Chambéry, mail more around Lille, etc.). "It never was also little players this year, after two local actors in 2010", said Denis Cayet.

Especially, the total liberalisation of the market comes at the worst time. "Nobody want to attack a dominant player, while the market is in structural decline", analysis Frédéric Pons. Under the blows of battering of the Internet, mail, has been a few months, a fall accelerated distributed volumes. Most European positions, including the French, predicts a 30 reduction in the number of letters between 2009 and 2015, a drop due to three-quarters to the development of electronic mail. What discouraged some players. "We pronostiquions before these volume falls, the competition we would lose 5 to 10 market share, now we are building on 0-10," explained recently Jean-Paul Bailly, CEO of La Poste.

A potential danger

If no player national is therefore to wait in the immediate future, however some companies could aim to lucrative market segments. "I am convinced that this competition will rise in power, with a series of small innovative competitors in niches which - and this is the game - fit expectations consumers, and which will perhaps cheaper", suggested the week last Jean-Paul Bailly the parliamentarians. Some business as defence near Paris districts, may be the main beneficiaries of trade liberalization. A potential danger for the position, which should expect to see 50 major clients - they represent one third of the turnover to themselves - be courted by alternative operators. "The margin is quite concentrated in our businesses." "Loss of little volumes can therefore make us lose a lot in profitability," said Nicolas Routier, the pattern of the mail. The Netherlands, TNT, liberalised several years lost nearly 7 to 8 points of share of market, but up to 25 points for big clients. The post promises innovation to counter these potential new entrants.