On this type of attempts history is silent

History is always good advice to the political tactician plans in the future. Nicolas Sarkozy is convinced, that prepares its élyséenne winback regularly revisiting the past and reviewing errors and success of its predecessors. He did in 2007 by choosing to appoint a man - François Fillon - he thought that it would little shade at Matignon. What had theorized Georges Pompidou after his dispute with Jacques Chaban-Delmas: "the future Presidents of the Republic will be taken to choose as Prime Ministers of the men never have to fear, I do not say the independence of thought and expression - what is essential - but the competition. (1) For his first Ministers of start of mandate, only Jacques Chirac had before him agreed with this Council, in choosing Alain Juppe at his accession to the Elysee in 1995 and Jean-Pierre Raffarin after his re-election in 2002. As Georges Pompidou with Jacques Chaban-Delmas, Valéry Giscard d'Estaing and François Mitterrand had instead relied on a personality capable to expand their majority and prove their concern of opening - to regret it often: Jacques Chirac to VGE in 1974; Pierre Mauroy (1981) and Michel Rocard (1988) for François Mitterrand. For these two Presidents, "wisdom" pompidolienne intervened then: First Ministers that followed were of the faithful.

On the repeated advice to Alain Minc, Nicolas Sarkozy has, it seems, another lesson of the V Republic: it should not repeat the choice made by Valéry Giscard d'Estaing to retain his Prime Minister (in this case Raymond bar) during his campaign for re-election. It had paid him dear to François Mitterrand in 1981. A few weeks of the announced government reshuffle, François Fillon himself seems to have taken note of his departure. Opening a strange period of inspiration this time mitterrandist, where Nicolas Sarkozy, silent about his intentions, left the Court with "matignonables" play elbows and spread its claims in the press.

Clearly more sensitive is the attempt to draw a perfect portrait of Prime Minister from the past. The exercise may even prove frustrating for any President for a "new impetus". In General, the appointment of a new host of Matignon has only very few doping effect on the popularity of the head of State, sauf in the case of cohabitation (and in these cases, the effect is spectacular). On the other hand, it may play a role of negative accelerator. François Mitterrand rating fluctuated between 55 and 60 of favourable opinions (TNS-Sofres) before falling to 31 in the months that followed the appointment of Edith Cresson in May 1991. Three Prime Ministers were at best able to delay of a few months the collapse of their President, Raymond Barre (appointed in April 1978 by VGE), Laurent Fabius (by François Mitterrand in July 1984) and Pierre Bérégovoy (April 1992). But the only two Presidents were re-elected at the end of a term (François Mitterrand and Jacques Chirac) have been after a period of cohabitation. Normally, a Prime Minister cannot as a miracle.

On the other hand, its failures can be informative. The difficulties of Raymond Barre at the end of the quinquennium Giscard, Edith Cresson under Mitterrand and Dominique de Villepin under Chirac entered in political stone the importance of a premier master of the majority parliamentary and broken in the mysteries of the Parliament. Without having this knowledge, Christine Lagarde itself, a few weeks ago, withdrew from the race for Prime Minister's Office.

Is this because Francois Mitterrand is too damaged in its relationship with Michel Rocard that Nicolas Sarkozy also appears very attentive to its proximity to his Prime Minister For his second Prime Minister, as his first, the President of the Republic seems not prepared to appoint a potential rival. In the game of the current rumors, Jean-François Copé, yet essential figure in the majority, is rarely quoted. Confidence is too fragile. Nicolas Sarkozy seems unwilling to do with Copé that Jacques Chirac did not with him.

But confidence and competence are sufficient It is the main dilemma that arises today Nicolas Sarkozy. In reassuring line an Alain Juppé (first term Chirac) or a Pierre Bérégovoy second mandate Mitterrand), the head of State has several personalities to take home Matignon while itself devote to campaign. Michèle Alliot-Marie, Minister of uninterrupted since 2009, is but a few, and Brice Hortefeux, faithful of the faithful, and Luc Chatel, resulting in a quasi sans-faute since 2007.

Yet, the President of the Republic appears to seek more, a Prime Minister with five legs that would have "more" policy a Mauroy, the modernity of a Fabius (but not its popularity), or even a detonating personality... Villepin (without Clearstream and PBS). François Baroin - and Bruno Le Maire, to a lesser extent because it is more "new" policy - brings together many of their qualities, "quadra" dynamic, good knowledge of the State and holder of an image of reconciliation with the questioning. Jean-Louis Borloo, Minister proven and yet standard, which Nicolas Sarkozy could hope to win the electorate of the centre. With a risk and an unknown. The risk involved in the choice of the originality in Matignon: the V Republic was not tender with the iconoclastic personalities.

The mostly unknown, which is trying to capture, through its Prime Minister, a new electorate. And to issue the head of the State a kind of dual signal policy to address the future voters in 2012: Nicolas Sarkozy preventing supporters respond to sirens of Marine Le Pen, Jean-Louis Borloo avoiding hemorrhage from the centre to the PS (especially if DSK is candidate), Bayrou, Villepin or the Greens. On this type of attempts, history is silent.