The Goldman Sachs Bank anticipates a parity of 1

The historic decision taken Tuesday by the Federal Reserve has made waves in the financial markets. America's Central Bank reduced the rate of refinancing of 1 to a range between 0 and 0.25. It aligned on the rate already in force on the interbank market for loans to the day the day.

In doing so, Institute of emission has been hit a violent blow to the greenback. The euro experienced its largest increase in one day against the US dollar yesterday in assessing 4.30, to 1,4395 dollar. The analysis of the differentials of interest between countries is on the front of the stage.

The rent of money is 2.5 in the euro area and 0.3 in the Japan. This factor of arbitration for investors had tended to be blunt in recent months subject to an extreme risk aversion which benefited the dollar, international reserve currency. The recent comments of Jean-Claude Trichet, the President of the European Central Bank, which has doubts about the possibility of a decline in the rate in January, played also for the euro.

Nice progression of the yen

For its part, the yen also benefited from the comments made by the Japanese Government, which rejected the hypothesis of an intervention to calm the appreciation of the Japanese currency against the dollar. The greenback was exchanging against 87,90 Yen yesterday, namely a 2.40 drop. Foreign exchange dealers are therefore beginning to revise their scenarios. The Goldman Sachs Bank anticipates a parity of 1.45 dollar with the euro, against 1.30 dollar previously, and judge that the greenback should be worth 90 Yen instead of 105 by a year.

The announcement of the Federal Reserve also caused strong reactions on bond markets. The home has been very positive in the United States but in Europe also. The yields of State bonds, which move in the opposite direction of bond prices, fell to levels that the markets were more known for years. In the United States, the rate of the Treasury 2 years purchase, the more sensitive to monetary policy decisions, slipped up to 0.6 before resuming a little. Declining very issued on long rates, the 10-year sliding at 2,1572 and the 30 years of 2,6654.

The US Central Bank again indicated Tuesday that it could buy long-term securities to anchor these maturities at low rates.

"Potential of decline".

Many strategists believe instead that in Europe the yields of short maturities can more back those long rates. "The potential of short rates is higher in Europe than in the United States in view of the large margin of manoeuvre available to the European Central Bank to reduce the rent of money", says Patrick Jacq at BNP Paribas.

The market anticipates a decrease of 75 basis in 2009 points but the strategist does not exclude a monetary easing much stronger in response to a very deteriorated environment. 2-Year bond yields to are relaxed in a very sensitive way yesterday in Europe. The German Schatz, for example, conceded to 24 points, to 1.83, and the French rate 22 points to 2.08.