However the war of the Exchange has begun

The terms of a war of exchange rates appear to be met. According to the latest forecasts of the international monetary Fund (IMF), world growth should decrease by 1.3 and trade fall by 11 this year. The deflation threat: in the US, the consumer prices fell for the first time since 1955, on an annual basis. Also degraded conditions, it is tempting for States to use the depreciation of their currencies as a way to regain a share of competitiveness with others.

It be remembered, the great depression had led to a profound crisis of the Exchange: the pound sterling was devalued by 40 in 1931 and the United Kingdom came out of the system of the gold standard. A series of devaluations followed, including that of the franc. In the early 1990's, on a background of recession, the collapse of the European monetary system (EMS) has led to a devaluation of the British currency, which allowed the recovery of exports and the economy across.

Today, the "symmetric shocks" that affects the world economy already promotes non-cooperative behaviour. Yet, except China, which has moved the attitude of the United States and advocated for the adoption of a different reference of the dollar currency, authorities sidestep the debate. In its semi-annual report in April on exchange rate policies (1), the US Treasury accuses no state manipulation of its currency against the greenback. Immediately says that the yuan is undervalued. Amazingly, the Summit of the g-20, April 2, has stalled on the issue. The twenty focused on solutions, with the strengthening of the IMF and the stimulus measures of world trade, rather than a topic which has been deep disagreements emerge.

However, the war of the Exchange has begun. Crisis has awakened the demon of protectionism, which the monetary devaluation is a weapons. A small country is already explicitly committed in this field: the Switzerland, since mid-March, intervening on the foreign exchange market to "prevent a new appreciation of the franc against the euro."

Other States are likely to funnel into the breach. Prospective candidates include the Japan, the Sweden, the Norway, the Canada, the Australia, the New Zealand. Are evidently concerned first of externally-oriented economies. The Japan has just recorded its first annual trade deficit in thirty years. Commodity-exporting countries suffer from the decline in global demand. Another factor aggravating, margins of manoeuvre, fiscal and monetary (rates), are now limited. Most central banks have lowered the rent of money almost to 0. Finally, some States are known to be historically interventionist. Suspicion and still weigh on the Bank of the Japan, which is concerned as much as the Switzerland of the deflationary threat.

The case of the Russia is a little special. The authorities first engulfed a substantial share of their reserves to support the ruble, strained. And then the Central Bank has opted for the devaluation of its currency and the flexibilization of its exchange-rate regime. If the consequences of this shift are not sensitive, you might think that these measures, combined with the stimulus plan, will be damaging to competitors of the Russia.

A more insidious phenomenon likely to develop. The crisis leads to profound adjustments on the foreign exchange market and some countries can illustrate by their convenience ("benign neglect"). The pound sterling has lost 26 of its value against the dollar and 12 against the euro in eight months. The abyssal deficits of the United Kingdom and the plan of redemption for 150 billion pounds of debt market in themselves constitute measures which a priori are derogatory to the Exchange. On the other hand, the monetary authorities know distil the right messages to the market. Has Paul Fisher, of the Bank of England, not recently admitted that intervention was a possible weapon

This attitude is already victims. She stifles a bit more Ireland, whose economy is also dominated by the financial sector and that arises in several respects in its British neighbor competitor. It also hitting the whole of the euro area.

"The single currency appears eventually as the only variable of adjustment against many currencies", analysis Agnès Pilch-Quéré, Director of the Cépii (2). So far, sixteen are distinguished by their delay "disparages" policy If the rate of the European Central Bank (ECB) has to be reduced to 1, the ECB has just getting in the way of the unconventional measures, for the meaning the other central banks.