If opinion polls stunned the supporters of the "Yes", it is not only because the "no" to the Constitutional Treaty European crossed for the first time the bar of 50 of the vote. It is also by the extent of its progress. "It is rare to see equally strong developments in a few days," concedes Jérôme Fourquet, of the Ifop Institute. In the space of fifteen days, the "no" rose 40 to 52 of the vote in the poll Ipsos published yesterday by "Le Figaro". The conducted by CSA for "Le Parisien" last weekend, he moved in three weeks of 37 to 51. According to the institutes, voters less pronounce on the merits (the Treaty) on the perquisites. In this case the social policy.
"Great elasticity".
"The French are not Yes or no to the Constitution on the basis of their attitude to Europe", notes Stephane Rozes, of the CSA Institute, noting a "great elasticity" in voting intentions. "The French are attached to the Europe but the Europe remains for them a very minor issue." "It can therefore be easily hijacked," said Jerome Sainte-Marie, in BVA.
The social unrest of recent weeks, on a background of Government unpopularity, largely facilitated the task of the proponents of the "no". Like the draft Bolkestein directive on the liberalisation of the market of services in the Union, which they used as a scarecrow. Thus, the decline of the "Yes" is particularly sensitive among voters from the left. Especially the Socialist supporters, tempted to punish the Government despite the commitment of the PS for the Constitutional Treaty.
Cleavage emerged in the referendum on the Maastricht Treaty is enriched other parameters. As in 1992, the less well-off socio-professional categories are more likely to vote against the European Constitutional Treaty. But the situation is less simple than thirteen years ago, when pro and anti-European clashed on the creation of the single currency. At the time, the employees of the public saw no in Europe a threat to their status. Today, they are between 57 and 63 to lean towards "no". A few graduate employee aged 35 to 49, voting traditionally to the left, living in a rural area and working in the public sector, has the chance to vote "no".
The combat looks fierce
Rest than if the supporters of the "no" provide the voice for several weeks, the campaign for the "Yes", it barely starts. "History has not ended." "The battle to impose the dominant issues of the campaign is just beginning," insists Brice Teinturier, Sofres. In 1992, counsel for the Maastricht Treaty were descended into the arena the flower to the rifle, satisfied to win: opinion polls giving the majority to "no" had appeared in the final straight before the vote.
This time, counsel for the Constitutional Treaty know what to keep. Including, they hope to convince the mass of undecided, which represents more than half of the electorate. According to Jérôme Fourquet, this important reservoir, in effect, "a priori favourable to Europe". But the battle in the PS shows that nothing can be taken for granted. For the time being, one thing is certain: fight, here at May 29, looks fierce. In 1992, a French four was decided in the last week.
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