Confirmation of the slowdown in the US economy is not bad news for the markets. The publication Friday of a deceleration of growth in the United States in the second quarter, revenue from 5.6 to 2.5 on an annual basis, was rather well received by the operators. This information has been dropped from 46 to 26 likelihood that the Federal Reserve is an eighteenth consecutive increase in interest rates at the next meeting of its monetary policy Committee, on 8 August. It was also somewhat tempered tensions on energy prices, especially on the course of a barrel of oil that the escalation in the Middle East has recently been pumped up beyond 78 dollars first place.
A little less concerned about these issues, investors focused on the publication of the semi-annual results season currently raging. Overall, the figures disclosed by companies are rather good, outside a few notable exceptions, especially in the technology sector. In the majority of cases, the results are even higher than expectations. According to Thomson Financial, 68 of 248 the Standard & Poor's index companies, who published their figures to 27 July, reported better performance that is it anticipated the analysts.
This vitality of companies gave boost to stock prices which have sharply rebounded last week. New York Dow Jones has recorded its largest increase in points in one week since November 2004, and ironing over the 11.200 points. And in Paris, the index upward CAC 40 has reconnected with the level of 5,000 points that he had abandoned late may, thus validating a graphical configuration.
Fed: status quo August 8
Provided, the operators do not pay in optimism rampant to this upwelling of courses that of some may indeed be too fast. The evolution of the military situation in southern Lebanon, where the Israeli army met fierce opposition of Hezbollah which it obviously not expected, incites caution. As analysts are beginning to wonder if companies can sustained double-digit growth rate they know since now eleven consecutive quarters. The warnings issued by several companies on their Outlook for the second half contribute to instilling doubts about the dynamics of future results. "We continue to believe that the evolution of stock markets has become more uncertain because of the Middle East and the announcements of business Outlook", thus believe Antoine Brunet and Sophie Casanova, analysts at HSBC France. If for them "a crash is unlikely", the slide started since May 10 could go more that they thought.
In the meantime markets will continue to follow carefully the many results which will still be published this week. Operators will also seek to confirm the hypothesis of the monetary break in new US economic statistics. Help to lift recent uncertainties about the evolution of the policy of the Federal Reserve If the market majority believes in a status quo on 8 August, some believe the Central Bank could, by caution, yet proceed a final turn of screw. Respect, household expenditure which will be published tomorrow and the labour market figures out Friday will be scrutinized extremely carefully.