The consumer confidence index calculated by the University of Michigan had not fallen at such a level since 1980. A 59.5 points for the month of may, this indicator watched by financial markets therefore surprised Friday. Economists projected a decline, but less pronounced, with 62 points after 62.6 in April. Locked since the beginning of the month in a range of fluctuations ranging from 1,5390 to 1,5550 dollar, the euro took to pull themselves up to 1,5601 dollar. The day before, the publication of figures for the growth in the euro area, reflecting a great resilience in the economy, did there had not sufficient. Remains whether if this output from the top will be confirmed.
In recent weeks, the trend has been dictated by the dollar. For stakeholders, in a context of taken central banks to the trap of inflation, the Federal Reserve could be the first to respond. In fact, expectations of new rate cuts was swept away to make room for the expectation of a possible first step by the end of the year. Side BCE, hopes of a cut in rates was postponed at the time. This inflation problem has weighed on the market of State bonds, which yields (strained) is are strongly.
Statistics in withdrawal
In this context, the confidence index published Friday cast doubt. In addition to a slight relaxation observed on American loans, rates declined on the federal funds futures contracts. Pointed to 2.20 Thursday, due December contract is relaxed by 6 basis points, to return to 2.14. In other words, market gives more than 56 probability to first raising of us interest rates in December, against 80 Thursday yet. And 2009 contracts have also been reversed.
"To our markets underestimate the negative impact on us growth in the credit crunch." "We continue to believe that the next Fed move will be down and not rising," noted strategists Credit Agricole. Such a return back expectations would not fail to affect the greenback. At its last meeting, the Fed has carefully maintained the door open for a cut in rates if necessary. "The minutes of this meeting, which will be published on Wednesday, tell us a little more on the content of the discussion and appreciation of the balance of risks Editor's Note: between inflation and growth", continues to Credit Agricole. These minutes will be accompanied by the new game from the Fed forecasts.
At the same time, the euro could be affected by statistics back this week. "The ZEW and IFO Germany and figures to be published on the consumption in France and Italy will be down, putting the euro under pressure", said Ceuril Beuzit, strategist at BNP Paribas. The speech of some of the representatives of the European Central Bank last week to highlight exceptional factors behind the good of the economy in the first quarter, bolstered the establishment in its bearish view of the currency. "We believe that the euro has reached its earlier and that the risk of shock on the growth of the eurozone over the coming months will undermine the single currency", said Ian Stannard at BNP Paribas, which sees the euro back to 1.40 dollar.