The economic balance of the five years of Silvio Berlusconi's Government can be examined in the light of the evolution of key indicators and of respect for promises. It is clear that it is globally negative on both plans.
Apart from the evolution of the unemployment rate, which fell to 7.7 in 2005 (against 9.2 in 2001), even if this development is largely related to the regularization of immigrants black work, most of the major macroeconomic indicators are in Bern. For the first time for 10 years, the level of public debt is distributed upward, at 106.4 of GDP in 2005 (against 103,8 in 2004) and the public deficit is established at 4,1 of GDP (compared to 3.4 in 2004).
For this year, the economy Minister, Giulio Tremonti, has set as a goal to reduce the deficit to 3.8 for a "return to normal" (3) the following year. But most economists believe this particular "ambitious" goal, trended public deficit navigating around 4.4 for 2006, in the absence of drastic reduction in spending. "The most disturbing indicator is the cancellation of the primary balance, which fell from 3.2 to 0.5 of GDP in four years," said Anna Grimaldi, of Banca Intesa.
The tail Pack
In addition to the loss of competitiveness of its industry, the Italian economy is facing a net slowdown in growth than other countries in the euro area. With an increase of GDP by 0.2 in 2005 (against an average 1.5 European), the Italy is located in the Pack of tail of the European Union, even if the gap should be reduced in 2006 (1.3 vs. 2.1). According to Istat data, the overall tax burden actually dropped to 40.6 of GDP in 2005, compared with 41.3 in 2001. "But the tax cuts did not have a significant effect on consumption," said Anna Grimaldi.
In terms of respect for promises, the record is more than uncertain. On the eve of the elections in 2001, the leader of Forza Italia, Silvio Berlusconi, had intended to innovate in formalising the famous "contract with Italians", in a primetime television. He even undertook not to where it would fail to honor four promises in five at the end of the legislature. Today, the "Cavaliere" boasts overall honoured his contract, except on one point: the reduction of taxes on high incomes from 44 to 39.
But the numbers speak otherwise. Apart from the effective recovery of the monthly level of the minimum pension (to 516 euros), the outgoing Government is still far from its objectives. Even in terms of job creation, the head of the Italian Government has not fully made his promise of "divide by two the rate of unemployment through the creation of at least 1.5 million new jobs". According to the latest figures from the Istat, the cumulative number of jobs created reached 960.000 units since the year 2001, against a total of 1.3 million jobs created between 1996 and 2001.
Progression of precarious work
Among the main positive points recognized by employers: the beginning of a reform of the financing of pensions which will enter into force in 2008 and Biagi reform on the flexibility of the work of 2003. But, encore, it is too early to measure its real impact on job creation.
In addition, the Bank of Italy itself found a clear progression of the "precarious work", the term contracts now representing 50 of new recruitments youth under 30 years old, from 46.4 in 2004.
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