Do you fear an inflationary crisis exit
The question is whether what will be the level of growth in out of the crisis. I do not believe that hyperinflation is at our doors, or that we are in a scenario of deflation in the Japanese. We are now forced to reckoning of an era of imbalances. The crisis was largely caused by serious macroeconomic imbalances. In Europe, States spent too much and, in the United States, it was the consumers. All this has been facilitated by an inappropriate us monetary policy and regulation insufficiently alerted on the rise of the risks. States to get out of debt, consumers are recovering to save. Like any detoxification treatment, it is long and painful, but positive for the future.
What is the priority, according to you
Europe needs States that discipline, but should not be mistaken on the words. The reduction of deficits is necessary, but before all, if it is done by the reduction in the level of expenditure. Economic history shows that, if is to improve the competitiveness of an economy to generate more growth and jobs, it lower stalled. Finance declining deficits primarily by an increase in taxes, maintaining a high dead point. Better to let reinvesting wealth by those who created it instead of the raise to try to redistribute it in an extraordinarily complicated manner.
Nicolas Sarkozy has done enough to reduce public deficits
The State has never been as much as since 2007! The France is the only OECD country that has not submitted a budget to balance since 1981. It would be naive to believe that it could catch up with all these years in three years. Succeed in reversing the trend, it is already. The true risk, today, is that the efforts of the State are cancelled by local communities. Since the 1980s, they have created more than 1 million of public or semi-public additional. It is probably not load transfers which fully justify...
Can the France escape a speech David Cameron, who promises ten years of rigour to the United Kingdom
I mÃ©fierais the doctor giving the order to two different patients. The France is not England and did not need the same order, even if a sharp decline in public spending is a necessity.
How you think then
The growth will continue in emerging countries. Their development model is simple: they have a strong demographics, capital, technology, and labor now. The question is to know how to generate growth in developed countries, which still represent 80 of global wealth. Some have many assets: the Germany to rely on a competitive economy; the US have a real ability to rebound. The France, in the longer term, could benefit from its birth. Contrary to that could suggest the current debates, demography and the lengthening of life are not obstacles to development. On the contrary. What was the main source of wealth and employment in the 20th century The lengthening of thirty years of life expectancy. People live, and therefore produce and consume more thirty years. It just to rethink our social model to economically advantage.
Developed countries have other
Europe has a great competitive advantage it spoil: savings. It Mars because the investment of this savings is suboptimal, even more France than elsewhere. This savings is used to fund either of operating expenses, or the very short term. Can explain it by an aversion to risk, by a lack of financial culture, by the weight of the regulation or the greediness of the States. We, the insurers, do a business of long savings. But everything is done today for we prohibit our role. The accumulation of accounting and prudential rules for example forced the European insurers to sell 400 billion euros in shares in recent years. If, instead of selling shares since 2007, they had purchased, markets would probably not descended as low and companies would have been better funded.
How do you have the measures taken by the Government on life insurance
Tax savings long, is not the best way to encourage it. Really is the French passion for the book the best investment for growth and employment It is today fighting tax niche topics, while should rather worry about the regulation on long savings in Europe. Solvency II requires a management to one-year horizon. It is the perfect illustration of the perverse effects of the precautionary principle. Do not hope that insurers invest significantly into action as long as the regulations will require management in the short term. If this horizon ranged between five and ten years, which corresponds to the average duration of the commitments made to the insured, you would see insurers return naturally to the stock markets. Why deprive himself of this resource at a time where one becomes aware that the defence of the capital of our companies is a strategic priority
Can you still get developments in Solvency II, scheduled for the entry into force on 1 January 2013
Even if we remain favourable to the principles of this directive, we consider that today contemplated calibrations remain totally excessive for a sector that has shown its strength in historic crisis we just cross. When a train leaves in the wrong direction, it is not necessary to wait before it derailed to the stop. If need to reintroduce long hands in the market to restore stability, it is not unnecessary to take a little time to think.
AXA has just suffered a disappointment in the Asia-Pacific, the National Australia Bank having withdrawn last Tuesday its offer to purchase on your subsidiary 54 AXA APH. Is the status quo possible
This is a clear political decision of the Australian authorities to keep banks occupy a dominant position in the management of savings. For our part, this will not affect the operational development of our activity in this region. In the first half, we have registered a growth of 40 in Southeast Asia. Before talking about a status quo, other solutions are perhaps possible.
You always said to want a rebalancing of the results to emerging countries. The impasse in which is the folder AXA APH complicates things
The objective was to increase the exposure of the shareholders of AXA to these assets, but in any event, we will continue to increase our presence in emerging countries. But, today, it's a bit: "the emerging, all the emerging, nothing emerging." All are not the target markets and they are also not limited to Asia. The Turkey, the Russia, the Europe of the East, the Mediterranean basin, Latin America also offer growth potential and we have very beautiful positions in several of these markets. Life insurance, emerging economies already represent about 20 of the value of new business of AXA. And there are still tanks for development even in the more mature markets. In foresight, for example, the populations of developed countries are underequipped. People think not enough accidents of life. Addiction is also a great social risk amount around the world. It is a perfectly insurable risk provided they go early and to the pool to create true solidarity between generations and social categories.
AXA is half less stock there is ten years, how do you explain it
The whole of the sector suffers from the environment, which results in a strong aversion to risk and interest rates abnormally low. This is reflected perhaps excessively in the recovery of European insurers. The operational result of AXA has been multiplied by 4 in the course of the last ten years, demonstrating the strength of our business model. Our priority is to continue the development of the group.
You present a new strategic plan in the coming months. What are the guidelines
AXA out strengthened from the crisis. We must now create more growth conditions when the horizon will escape. There is not changes radical to wait on our large trades, but the pursuit of a strategy based on greater proximity with our customers and, on the financial plan, on a more dynamic allocation of capital, in the image of what we have to United Kingdom, with us insufficiently profitable business to better focus on the most promising trades and the geographies.