The Summit between the European Union and the Ukraine, today in Evian, takes place against a backdrop of loaded. Kiev is taken in a yet another political turmoil after the announcement last week of the collapse of the pro-Western coalition Government. And the military invasion of the Georgia by the Russia strengthened the will of the Ukraine to integrate as quickly as possible the European Union and NATO.
But twenty-seven are shared on this request. Some "enlargement fatigue" is installed in the Union. In addition, Ukraine's economy is still far to the level required to apply for membership. Although the Ukrainian leaders argue that they ask just a "clear prospect of accession", support for them then to prepare their country for a decade. Finally, the EU is not hot to integrate a country plagued with the Russia relations and which include a region Russian-speaking, the Crimea, can give rise to an equivalent to the known crisis this summer in South Ossetia.
Some Member States, including the Germany, the Italy and the Belgium, no longer not to anger Moscow, providing one-quarter of the gas consumed in Europe and its collaboration in GEO files (Iran, the fight against Al-Qaida) remains useful. Even if real provocation, in the eyes of the Kremlin, would not be the entry of the Ukraine in the EU and NATO. Conversely, advocates of the accession of the Ukraine (Great Britain, the Sweden and the former satellites of the Russia, Poland, Czech Republic or Baltic) argue that the prosperity and stability of the Ukraine are essential. Important Russian pipelines supplying Europe transit through this former Soviet Republic of 46 million people.
An agenda "already full.
The European Commissioner for enlargement, Olli Rehn, who advocated late August an evolution of the European position by arguing that the Ukraine could be "the next target of the Russia political pressures", tempered his remarks this weekend. "We will do everything we can diplomatically and economically to reconcile the Ukraine of the Union", but "for the moment", the agenda of enlargement of the Union is "already full" with the countries of the Balkans, he said.
For all these reasons, Nicolas Sarkozy, barely up from Russia to Georgia (read above), will propose to the President of Ukraine, Viktor Yushchenko, on the shores of Lake Geneva, this famous "perspective of accession", on behalf of the Union European over which he presides this semester. It will be just, according to the draft joint statement prepared last Wednesday in Brussels, to appoint "association agreement" that partnership strengthened that the Union is currently negotiating with the Ukraine. A way to not close the door without opening it so. The association agreement commits to nothing, but is traditionally that the Union sign with countries which then become official candidates for membership. The Union is, also, coax the Ukraine putting term to remove the requirement for a visa for its nationals.
Attracted by the stability and prosperity that embodies the European Union, Kiev cannot forget that its Russian neighbour provides more than 80 of its energy and with it any order links very strong twelve centuries. Indeed, the Russia remains the main uncapped of the Ukraine, absorbing 25 percent of its exports, far before the Italy, the Germany or the Poland. The whole of the European Union buys that 29 of Ukrainian exports. Similarly, 42 of the imports of the Ukraine come from the CIS (former USSR less the Baltic countries), compared with 37 of the Union.
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